South Africa – The Drift Towards Civil War

I started writing this blog post back in 2018, but never published it. In July, during my summer holiday, I read about the riots taking place in South Africa. This made me think of my unfinished post. I think it is still relevant, so despite it being two years since I wrote it, I have decided to publish it.

In 1989, the Iron Curtain fell and East Germany reunited with West Germany. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the freedom of Eastern Europe followed. Since then, many Eastern European countries have changed, mostly closing the economic gap between Eastern and Western Europe. Only a few years later, in 1994, apartheid in South Africa finally came to an end. There was much hope that South Africa would develop and prosper as the so-called Rainbow Nation. However, twenty-two years later, in 2018, not much of this spirit has survived. Although many black and mixed-race people have moved up the social scale, the overall unemployment rate for black people has increased. The crime rate is notably high. For example: In 2013, South Africa’s murder rate was 23 times higher than France’s (Wikipedia). As if that were not enough, the country also suffers from high rates of rape, car hijacking, kidnapping and farm attacks. However, crime is not the only problem; corruption and misgovernment are also holding the country back.

Consequently, the population as a whole suffers from this situation. However, the different ethnic groups perceive the situation quite differently. Whites will certainly perceive the situation as a loss and blame the new political order. While the majority of black people still want an improvement to their situation, only a few of them will be able to benefit from it. The vast majority will remain discontented and continue to blame the white minority for their situation. At the same time, huge problems can be observed in many parts of Africa, resulting in a large influx of African migrants to South Africa. This does not help to ease social tensions either. When things go badly, they can only get worse. For example, when a severe drought hit in the summer of 2018, Cape Town nearly ran out of water, and agriculture was hit hard. The authorities were criticised for being passive and lethargic. Not an inspiring situation.

Let’s quickly return to the beginning of the text. Most Eastern European countries successfully transitioned from socialism to a Western liberal system. The reasons for this are beyond the scope of this text, but it certainly stands in contrast with the situation in South Africa, where an economic paradigm shift was unnecessary. South Africa changed its political and social systems to follow the example of free and liberal democracies. Yet, after 22 years, it is difficult to speak of a successful transformation. All the indicators show new lines of separation within the country. It is not state-run apartheid now, but rather a form of segregation. Black and white people do not come together as one; they live side by side, but are mostly culturally disconnected. The majority of them are still apart, and whether they speak out or not, each group blames the other for the lack of success.

This situation reminds me of British India. When the power of the British Raj weakened during the Second World War and the fight for Indian independence gained momentum, the Muslim population realised that they would become a minority in a free, democratic country. Having ruled India for many centuries, the Muslims feared retaliation in a Hindu-dominated India and thus started asking for their own independent state. India gained independence in 1947, but was divided into Pakistan and modern-day India through the partition of British India. The partition was a nightmare involving millions of deaths, and it is still unclear whether it was a wise step. Although British India was divided, many Muslims remained in what is now India, and there is still a Muslim minority of between 10 and 15 percent. Legally, they have the same rights as Hindus. However, they are marginalised in many ways and are often treated as second-class citizens, sometimes even being the victims of brutal attacks. Hindu nationalism demonstrates that pressure from the majority towards the Muslim minority is significant. Therefore, the idea of partition is at least quite understandable. However, the practicality of partition among the successor states of British India is questionable, given the wars fought by India and Pakistan. Last but not least, we mustn’t forget the secession of East Pakistan, which is now the independent state of Bangladesh. However, there are also many signs indicating that peaceful and equal coexistence is not yet possible. With this in mind, I will turn to South Africa. When I see initiatives such as the Suidlanders‘ movement, I am reminded of India’s partition. The Suidlanders are a group that has prepared an evacuation plan for white Africans in the event of violence in the country. At first, this may seem quite extreme and purely a reaction to right-wing or racist thinking among white Africans. However, I think it is more a realistic fear and a call for new perspectives. South African President Jacob Zuma certainly fuelled fears when he sang in a public sing-along, ‘You are a Boer (white man), we are going to hit them…’. It is quite scary and reminds me of Germany’s darkest past. It’s quite scary and reminds me of Germany’s darkest past.

If South Africa does not find a way to protect and respect the economic achievements of the white minority, the resulting tensions could lead to an explosion of violence. It is clear that black people have a right to personal fulfilment and economic development. However, this will not be achieved if frustration turns into violence against white people. Such a policy only seeks a scapegoat, not solutions.